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4.1 Confirmation Bias and Lucky Shirts

This video discusses confirmation bias using the examples of broken laptop chargers and the presidential election. The three steps to breaking confirmation bias are explained and the importance of the term is emphasized. It will be discussed again later in the course.

4.2 Psychics, Coincidences, and Bernoulli Trials

Psychics often make correct predictions about their client’s future. This video examines rare situations like this to determine whether they are merely coincidental or something more. Bernoulli Trials are explained and employed in a probability theory experiment.

4.3 Birthdays and Related Scenarios in Life

This video continues the discussion of rare events using the example of birthdays. Even rare events must happen at some point, and the probability that a rare event occurs increases with the number of opportunities it has to occur.

4.4 Psychics' Strategies and Probability Amplification

This video further discusses psychics and the strategies they use to make predictions. The importance of confirmation bias is reaffirmed and the idea of probability amplification is introduced. The Barnum Effect is defined and used in examining the practices of psychics and astrologists.