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3.1 Probability Laws: Raining, Airplanes, and Elections

This video discusses the laws of probability, which are important to understand in order to make the best decision in an uncertain situation. Mutually exclusive events are also explained.

3.2 Conditioning and Independence

This video introduces the important concepts of conditional probability and independence. Using examples of uncertain events, we learn how to update probabilities when given additional information. These terms will be explained in greater detail throughout the course.

3.3 Disease Probabilities

This video demonstrates how to use relative frequency to calculate conditional probabilities. Using relative frequency with actual numbers to determine conditional probabilities, we can approach many problems in our lives.

3.4 Bayes' Rule: False Positive Paradox and Cancer Screening

This video describes Bayes’ Rule and its application to medical testing. Given the probability of a certain disease, we are given the tools to update the probability using Bayesian thinking. Base rates and conditional probability are discussed.

3.5 Courts and Bayes' Rules

Bayes’ Rule is further discussed in this video in relation to a legal case that demonstrates the importance of correctly understanding conditional probabilities. Miscalculations by prosecutors can have tragic results in situations that are already difficult.